The Polling Fallacy
Comments OffOctober 28, 2008 by Tyson Wynn
Does anyone realize how worthless polls of the national popular vote are?
In the first place, they are too close to call. And even more importantly, we do not elect presidents by popular vote. Essentially what is being reported is Obama’s daily popularity contest standings. No one can even begin to give you a reasonable look at the results until each state and its electoral votes are considered. And as we draw nearer the election, the tighter these swing states get. It’s close. It’s tight. No one is way ahead, thus no one is way behind. One major misstep by either candidate could change everything, and a week is more than enough time for that to happen.
But remember, every time you hear a poll number reported it is utterly worthless as an indicator, and someone just might be using the report to try to sway your opinion and possibly even to convince you it is so sewn-up that you might as well stay home. Don’t fall for it. And keep in mind, these same people have been wrong over and over and over in the past. They always have the more liberal candidate ahead; they are usually wrong.
Category Barack Obama, John McCain, My 2¢, Politics, Sarah Palin | Tags:
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